Impacts of Climate Change on Cereal Production in the Setif High Plains (North-East of Algeria)

Abstract

In Setif high plains (north-east of Algeria), the fallow-winter cereals rotation occupies every year more than 80 % of cultivated land. The grain yield average is less than 1,300 kg/ha−1. The study of changes in precipitation in this region shows a tendency to drought, and directly influences the fluctuations of the cereal yields. Dryness in the Setifian high plains is already a reality. The number of dry years during the last 31 years, where precipitations are lower than the average, is 13 years. Variability of precipitation patterns reduces groundwater recharge ability. Cereal crops suffer from winter cold and drought stresses. Available water appeared as the most important factor limiting crop production under the semiarid highland of eastern Algeria. Climate change, as well as increases in climate variability, will alter precipitation, temperature, and evaporation regimes, and will increase the vulnerability of Setif high plains to changes in hydrological cycles. The impacts of climate change on crop production and food security could therefore be drastic. Biotechnological advances in improving crop yields and tolerances to aridity, coupled with climate and weather forecasting, is likely to bring significant payoffs for strategy of adaptation in the field of agricultural water management.