Abstract
Rapid increases in air temperature in Arctic and subarctic regions are driving significant changes to surface waters. These changes and their impacts are not well understood in sensitive high-Arctic ecosystems. This study explores changes in surface water in the high Arctic pond complexes of western Banks Island, Northwest Territories. Landsat imagery (1985–2015) was used to detect sub-pixel trends in surface water. Comparison of higher resolution aerial photographs (1958) and satellite imagery (2014) quantified changes in the size and distribution of waterbodies. Field sampling investigated factors contributing to the observed changes. The impact of expanding lesser snow goose populations and other biotic or abiotic factors on observed changes in surface water were also investigated using an information theoretic model selection approach. Our analyses show that the pond complexes of western Banks Island lost 7.9% of the surface water that existed in 1985. Drying disproportionately impacted smaller sized waterbodies, indicating that climate is the main driver. Model selection showed that intensive occupation by lesser snow geese was associated with more extensive drying and draining of waterbodies and suggests this intensive habitat use may reduce the resilience of pond complexes to climate warming. Changes in surface water are likely altering permafrost, vegetation, and the utility of these areas for animals and local land-users, and should be investigated further.
Highlights
Recent temperature increases in Arctic regions have been twice the average global change [1,2] and have triggered significant changes to regional hydrological systems, including surface water dynamics [3,4,5,6,7]
Regional sub-pixel water fraction (SWF) trends indicate that surface water has declined in all river valleys except the Kellett (Figure 2)
The Bernard River valley lost the largest absolute area of surface water (8.83 km2) and the Relfe-Fawcett River valley lost the highest proportion of original surface water (17.1%)
Summary
Recent temperature increases in Arctic regions have been twice the average global change [1,2] and have triggered significant changes to regional hydrological systems, including surface water dynamics [3,4,5,6,7]. The vulnerability of waterbodies to these processes depends on both the waterbody dimensions [20,21] and catchment characteristics [7,22,23] Regional differences in these factors have resulted in considerable variation in surface water dynamics across the Arctic [7,18,23,24]. Most studies in discontinuous permafrost zones have reported decreases in surface water, while most studies in continuous permafrost zones have shown increases in surface water [17,19,23,25] These studies have been restricted to subarctic and low Arctic regions, and trends in the high Arctic remain largely unstudied
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