Impacts of climate and demographic change on future skier demand and its economic consequences – Evidence from a ski resort in the German Alps

Abstract

Over the next decades the ski tourism industry in the Alps must deal with two major challenges. First, demographic change will lead to aging skiers and declining skier demand. Second, climate change will result in a decreasing number of operating days and optimal ski days, reduced snow reliability and increasing operating costs in some destinations. Both impact factors cause a change in travel behavior of ski tourists. Effects on skier demand have been quantified for Austria, though not for the German Alps, but previous publications lack any quantification of the resulting consequences on future turnover at destinations or compensation for losses. This demand side study addresses this gap using the example of the Sudelfeld ski area in Bavaria, German Alps. It estimates the impact of climate and demographic change on skier days (first entries) and future turnover at the destination. Furthermore, it presents a rough indication on how many non-skiing tourists have to be won by the destination to substitute for the calculated changes in demand. The results demonstrate that climate change will have a solely negative impact on skier demand for the 2030s and 2040s (−13.5% to −31.1%) compared to demographic change (+1.6% to −31.1%). This causes a change of the destination's turnover from +11.8% up to −56.4% (values adjusted to inflation) in the same period compared to the average of the last four winter seasons. Thus, adaptation measures need to be identified to reduce potential economic losses in the next decades.