Abstract
This paper examines the impacts of Bitcoin price growth (BPG) and Bitcoin volatility (BV) on China's monetary system indicated by inflation rates (INF), real exchange rates (RER) and money velocity (MV) based on the GARCH models using Bitcoin data from 2013 to 2019 to evaluate the necessity of China’s Bitcoin ban. The empirical results suggest that BPG has a significant negative impact on INF and MV, but is insignificant for RER. While the BV is insignificant for all three monetary aggregates. Consistent evidence is found from additional tests including the alternative model specifications, subperiod analysis and adding up third-party online payment as another control variable for money velocity. Our study focuses on the period without the sweeping ban of cryptocurrencies in China, which provides support for researchers and financial advisors when forecasting inflation or money velocity in other areas without legal-bans but having a relevantly crypto-skeptical attitude, and also for authorities in shaping and implementing relevant monetary policies.
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