IMPACTS OF BEETLE KILL ON MODELED STREAMFLOW RESPONSE IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN

Abdoul Oubeidillah,Venkat Lakshmi,Glenn Tootle

doi:10.29121/ijetmr.v6.i3.2019.363

Abstract

A beetle epidemic across the western United States has resulted in the death of millions of acres of forests. This beetle outbreak, referred to as “beetle kill”, has caused many to believe that such dramatic changes in land cover could potentially alter the hydrology of the impacted regions. One of the most important hydrological processes that beetle kill has the potential to impact is streamflow. This research evaluates the hydrologic impacts on streamflow from land cover change due to beetle kill in the North Platte River Basin (NPRB) (Colorado and Wyoming, USA) by utilizing the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. Utilizing the National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) dataset from 2005 / 2006 (onset of “beetle kill”) to more current conditions (2009), a decrease in tree cover of 16% to 40% was estimated. This decrease in tree cover was applied to VIC modeled streamflow from 1950 to 2000. The VIC model predicted a minimal increase in streamflow of approximately 5% which was not statistically significant.

Highlights

Many coniferous forests across western North America are experiencing a vast epidemic of bark beetles that has caused widespread tree mortality to peak to surprisingly unprecedented levels
The North Platte River Basin (NPRB), which was severely hit with the Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) epidemic in 2007/2008, has seen virtually all the lodgepole pine forests completely annihilated by beetle kill (Pendall et al, 2010)
In order to quantify the approximate amount of dead forests primarily due from beetle kill, National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) aerial images from both 2005/2006 and 2009 were imported into ArcGIS and a maximum likelihood classification performed

Summary

Introduction

Many coniferous forests across western North America are experiencing a vast epidemic of bark beetles that has caused widespread tree mortality to peak to surprisingly unprecedented levels. The current epidemic, which began in North America roughly around the mid to late 1990s, has claimed billions of trees ranging from parts of northern Mexico all the way to the southern Canadian provinces of Alberta and British Columbia [1] [2] [3]. The widespread pandemic has become so extensive throughout much of the West, that many locals have coined the phrase of “beetle kill” to describe the process the bark beetles employ to kill off the trees and eventually, given the appropriate amount of time, entire stands of forests. Beetle kill impacts include falling trees [5] [6] [4], wild fires [7], shifting ecosystems [8], reduction in tourism and skiing [9] [6] [4] [8], and homeowners costs associated with clear cutting [9].

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