Abstract

Autonomous vehicles will become a significant influence in the field of traffic and transportation. To determine the possible impact of fully automated traffic, this thesis analyzes trip-pattern data for the City of Karlsruhe, Germany. Based on survey data from the year 2012, the traveled distances are calculated in Karlsruhea baseline scenario as well as two competitive scenarios: best-case and worst-case. The database is analyzed for the most emerging trip patterns in three areas of the City of Karlsruhe. Trip data, including trip distance and mode choice, are analyzed by trip purpose and individual groups (based on employment status). By modifying the average trip distance, mode choice and trip patterns based on literature reviewed information, the consequences of autonomous vehicles are estimated. The study shows, that autonomous vehicles have the potential to reduce traffic (best-case), but on the other hand, could approximately double the overall traveled vehicle distances (worst-case).

Highlights

  • 1.1 BACKGROUNDPeople all over the world have the vision of self-driving vehicles for decades

  • Following from that issue, the impact of the planned measures in the VEP Karlsruhe has to be neglected in the calculation of future scenarios. 3.7.2.3 Average Travel Distance The average traveled distance is calculated by taking all trip distances out of the survey data

  • This thesis tries to quantify possible developments caused by autonomous vehicles (AVs), in order to answer whether the consequences for the traffic situation will be positive or negative

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Summary

Introduction

People all over the world have the vision of self-driving vehicles for decades. These autonomous vehicles (AVs) would allow travel without any human agency in terms of directional control. Engineers have been able to bring certain levels of automation to the market, but the level of full automation is not yet reached. The development is in progress and unstoppable; the only question is when full automation will enter the market and, how it will influence the field of traffic and transportation. The transition from manually controlled vehicles to AVs will include the challenge of mingled traffic of conventional and automated vehicles. This thesis briefly outlines some requirements to enable full automation vehicles, but does not discuss the transition phase between today and the era of full automation in detail. The focus is set on the consequences of a fully automated future on traffic volume

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