Impacts of an ice-free Northeast Passage on LNG markets and geopolitics

Abstract

In this paper we examine the economic and geopolitical relevance of an ice-free Northeast Passage as a shipping route, with a particular view on the major LNG-supplying and LNG-consuming countries, and expected changes in LNG trade flows. Several key aspects are considered in depth, such as the developments in natural gas production in the Russian Arctic, important trends and strategies of major Asian LNG-consuming countries, and the geographical and climatic particularities of the Arctic. The analysis reveals the competitiveness of Russian LNG exports along the Northeast Passage due to Yamal LNG, which could be a game-changer for global LNG supplies. We further find that an ice-free NEP is primarily relevant for maritime bulk, and particularly LNG, shipping, and thus of great geopolitical importance and strategic interest, especially for Russia and the US on the supply side, and China, Japan, and South Korea on the demand side. The political relevance of the Arctic is becoming more lucid, because the retreating ice creates possibilities for the development of hydrocarbons but also fosters strategic and military considerations of the littoral countries.