Abstract
Agricultural expansion is one of the primary land use changes on the Earth’s surface. The Songnen Plain in Northeast China is renowned for its Black Soil and is one of the most important agricultural regions of this country. In the last century, its population increased 20-fold and excessive areas of grassland were cultivated. Based on a series of decadal land use/land cover data sets in the plain (1910s–2010s), this study simulated the water balance in each decade using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and assessed the water effects of centurial agricultural expansion. Six variables were simulated to explain the land-atmosphere interaction: precipitation, total evapotranspiration, canopy transpiration, canopy interception evaporation, land evaporation and land surface runoff and infiltration. Agreeing with historical climate reanalysis data, the simulated precipitation in the plain did not have a significant trend. However, the total evapotranspiration significantly increased in the study region. The canopy transpiration and interception evaporation increased and the runoff and infiltration decreased, both indicating a drought effect in soil. The drying trend varied spatially with the strongest pattern in the central plain where large areas of wetlands remain. As a consequence of agricultural expansion, the centurial drying process in the fertile Black Soil may put strong pressure on the crop productivity and food safety of this important agricultural region.
Highlights
Anthropogenic activities play a significant role in global warming by altering land use and land cover (LULC) patterns on Earth’s surfaces [1,2]
Since this study examined the impacts of agricultural land use change on the water cycle, we set a fixed boundary layer of climatic condition represented by the 5-year averages of climatic variables over the period from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012
Identifying the drought effects of agricultural expansion across the plain, this study suggests the urgent need for Black Soil conservation for sustainable development of this important agricultural region
Summary
Anthropogenic activities play a significant role in global warming by altering land use and land cover (LULC) patterns on Earth’s surfaces [1,2]. Agricultural land expansion, for example, converts natural land covers to cultivated lands and is among the primary land use changes on a global scale [5]. While human beings benefit from abundant crop production, intensified cultivation may eventually be paid back by degraded lands and living environments. This change-response mechanism is a significant research question that needs to be answered for sustainable agriculture [10]
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