Abstract
African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly contagious animal disease which can cause disruptions in the international trade of pigs and products derived from pigs. During 2014–2019 ASF was introduced into several member states in the European Union (EU), including the Baltic states and Poland (2014), Czech Republic and Romania (2017), Belgium, Bulgaria and Hungary (2018), and Slovakia (2019). The objective of this study was to analyze how the ASF epidemic has contributed to the production, export, and prices of pigmeat and to the national pig inventory (number of pigs) in 11 EU member states. The data included country-level statistics on the pig markets and ASF outbreaks observed during 2010–2019. The data were first analyzed descriptively. Following this, a system of four equations was specified and estimated by using seemingly unrelated regression method. The results indicated that the consequences of ASF to the pigmeat markets are complex and may differ by country. They suggest that an ASF outbreak can reduce the production of pigmeat, export quantities and the national pig inventory in the short and medium term. On average, those new cases of ASF reduced the exports of pigmeat by close to 15% and the production quantity by more than 4% in the year after the cases had occurred, and the national pig inventory by 3–4% both in the current and the next year. However, only indirect effects on pigmeat prices were observed.
Highlights
African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable contagious animal disease, the control of which is governed by national and international regulations and agreements
The data indicated that the pig sector has evolved differently in countries where African Swine Fever (ASF) has been detected during the past few years (Figure 1)
An ASF outbreak can influence the pigmeat markets adversely and these effects vary from country to country
Summary
African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable contagious animal disease, the control of which is governed by national and international regulations and agreements. Apart from the island of Sardinia in Italy, the European Union (EU) was free from ASF for many years until the disease was introduced into. The disease was introduced into non-EU countries in Eastern Europe already a few years earlier, namely into Georgia (in April 2007), the Russian Federation (2007), Ukraine (2012), and Belarus (2013). Since 2014, the disease has spread to nine Eastern European member states of the EU [see [1, 2] for an overview of how the situation has evolved over time]. In some member states, such as Poland, the disease was limited to a small part of the country and not to the entire country [3]. As a route of spreading the disease, the wild boar has been of concern [5]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
