Impacts of Aerosols and Climate Modes on Tropical Cyclone Frequency over the North Indian Ocean: A Statistical Link Approach

Abstract

Abstract North Indian Ocean (NIO) tropical cyclone activity is strongly influenced by aerosols and climate modes. In this study, we evaluated the impact of aerosols and climate modes on modulating tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over the NIO. A statistical generalized additive model based on Poisson regression was developed to assess their relative impacts. Aerosol optical depth for different compounds simulated by the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model, sunspot number (SN) as solar variability, and eight climate modes—Atlantic meridional mode (AMM), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern (PNA), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), all based on reanalysis datasets, were analyzed for the 40-yr period 1980–2019. A strong linkage was found between TC activity and the AMM, IOD, and ENSO over the NIO. In addition, black carbon, organic carbon, sea salt, and sulfate aerosols have a significant impact on the cyclone frequency. Among these factors, black carbon, organic carbon, sea salt, and AMM account for the most variance of TCs, and among the other climate modes, IOD contributes more than ENSO. This is the first attempt to have identified this ranked set of aerosols and climate indices according to their relative ability to impact NIO TCs. Possible linkages between the thermodynamic and dynamic effects of aerosols on the Indian monsoon environment and its modifications to the large-scale environmental parameters relevant to TC development, namely, sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, relative vorticity, and relative humidity during different phases of the climate modes are discussed. Significance Statement Aerosols and climate modes have enormous impact on tropical cyclones (TCs). In this study, we evaluated the impact of aerosols and climate modes that modulate frequency of TCs over the north Indian Ocean. To assess the impact, a statistical generalized additive model based on Poisson regression was developed. A strong linkage was found between TC activity and Atlantic meridional mode, Indian Ocean dipole, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, whereas other climate modes have no statistical significance. In addition, black carbon, organic carbon, sea salt, and SO4 aerosols have a strong linkage to cyclone frequency. The study postulates that most positive phases of these climate modes are associated with more TCs, while the negative phases are associated with fewer.