Impacts and predictions of urban expansion on habitat quality in the densely populated areas: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China

Abstract

The conflict between the human-environment is more prominent in densely populated areas (DPA) where urban expansion is increasingly disturbing the ecological environment, resulting in significant damage to habitat quality (HQ). However, a few studies have examined the impacts of urban expansion on HQ in the DPA under different scenarios, especailly in the Yellow River Basin. Therefore, we quantitatively analyzed the impacts of urban expansion on HQ from 1990 to 2018 by coupling the FLUS-InVEST model and predicted the changes of urban expansion and HQ by 2030. The results showed that: (1) the urban expansion rate of DPA was 46.4%. Among them, Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin (HBOY) urban agglomeration expanded at the highest rate, with an expansion intensity of 0.16%. The urban expansion pattern was mainly edge expansion. (2) The overall HQ decreased by 1.6%. The HQ patch level was affected by urban expansion, and the higher-level habitat patches were easily shifted to lower-level habitat patches. Low HQ patches increased by 38.6% while high HQ gradually decreased. (3) Under the natural development scenario, the rate of urban expansion was 28.9% and HQ decreased by 2.9%. However, HQ only descesaed by 0.8% under HQ constraint scenario, indicating that urban expansion in a constrained way is of great benefit to improve HQ. These results provide a reference for ecological conservation and sustainable development in DPA.