Impacts Analysis of Dual Carbon Target on the Medium- and Long-Term Petroleum Products Demand in China

Abstract

Petroleum has become a strategic resource to the national economy, and forecasting its demand is a critical step to supporting energy planning and policy-making for carbon reduction. We first conducted a characteristic analysis of end consumption for petroleum products, and the key affecting factors are identified through an extended logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. Afterwards, the long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) was adopted to predict the petroleum products demand by considering the potential impacts of different policies on the identified key factors. Through comparative analysis of three scenarios including five sub-scenarios, the findings show that the dual carbon constraints are crucial to petroleum demand control. Under the enforcement of existing carbon peaking policies, the petroleum products demand will peak around 2043 at 731.5 million tons, and the impact of energy intensity-related policies is more significant than that of activity level. However, even if the existing policy efforts are continued, supporting the carbon-neutral target will not be easy. By further strengthening the constraints, the demand will peak around 2027 at 680 million tons, and the abatement contribution will come mainly from industry (manufacturing), construction, and transportation. Additional abatement technologies are necessary for the petroleum industry to achieve carbon neutrality.