Impact speed and a pedestrian's risk of severe injury or death

Abstract

This study estimates the risk of severe injury or death for pedestrians struck by vehicles using data from a study of crashes that occurred in the United States in years 1994–1998 and involved a pedestrian struck by a forward-moving car, light truck, van, or sport utility vehicle. The data were weighted to correct for oversampling of pedestrians who were severely injured or killed. Logistic regression was used to adjust for potential confounding related to pedestrian and vehicle characteristics. Risks were standardized to represent the average risk for a pedestrian struck by a car or light truck in the United States in years 2007–2009.Results show that the average risk of a struck pedestrian sustaining an injury of Abbreviated Injury Scale 4 or greater severity reaches 10% at an impact speed of 17.1miles per hour (mph), 25% at 24.9mph, 50% at 33.0mph, 75% at 40.8mph, and 90% at 48.1mph. The average risk of death reaches 10% at an impact speed of 24.1mph, 25% at 32.5mph, 50% at 40.6mph, 75% at 48.0mph, and 90% at 54.6mph. Risks varied by age. For example, the average risk of death for a 70-year-old pedestrian struck at any given speed was similar to the average risk of death for a 30-year-old pedestrian struck at a speed 11.8mph faster.