Impact Simulation of the Multi-Annual Management Plan Of Cod Fisheries in the Western Baltic and the Option of a Technical Alternative

Abstract

The cod stock in the Western Baltic Sea is assessed to be overfished regarding the definitions of the UN World Summit on Sustainable Development at Johannesburg in 2002. Thus, the European Fisheries Council enforced a multi-annual management plan in 2007. Our medium term simulations over the future 10 years assume similar stock productivity as compared with the past four decades and indicate that the goals of the management plan can be achieved through TAC and consistent effort regulations. Taking account of the uncertainty in the recruitment patterns, the target average fishing mortality of age groups 3 – 6 years of F = 0.6 per year as defined in the management plan is indicated to exceed sustainable levels consistent with high long term yields and low risk of depletion. The stipulated constraint of the annual TAC variations of ±15% will dominate future fisheries management and implies a high recovery potential of the stock through continued reductions in fishing mortality. The scientific assessment of sustainable levels of exploitation and consideration in the plan is strongly advised, taking account of uncertainties attributed to environmental and biological effects. We recommend our study to be complemented with economic impact assessments including effects on by-catch species, which have been disregarded in this study. It is further demonstrated, that the goals of the management plan can alternatively be achieved by mesh size adaptations. An alternative technical option of mesh size increases to realize the required reductions in fishing mortality provides avoidance of discards of undersized fish after a few years by means of improved selectivity, another important element of the Common Fisheries Policy. However, it is emphasized that technical regulations since 1990 failed to affect the by-catch and discards of juvenile cod. In any way, the meaningful implementation of the multiannual management plan through stringent control and enforcement appears critical.