Abstract
Taking advantage of direct numerical simulation, analytic keyhole theory, B-plane mapping, and planetary encounter geometry are shown to be useful in determining the impact probability of an asteroid with the Earth on a given encounter, as well as the potential for future encounters. The accurate estimation of the impact probability of hazardous asteroids is extremely important for space mission planning in order to mitigate their impact threat to Earth. Asteroids in Earth’s resonant orbits are particularly troublesome because of the continuous threat they pose in the future. Expanding upon the established theory, a computational method is developed to estimate the impact probability of an asteroid, fragmented into many pieces by a disruption mission, on their current and future encounters with Earth.
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