Impact on volcanic ash detection caused by the loss of the 12.0 μm “Split Window” band on GOES Imagers

Abstract

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Imager and Sounder data were evaluated to determine the potential effects of volcanic ash detection without the use of a 12 μm infrared (IR) band, on GOES-M (12) through Q (a period of at least 10 years). Principal component analysis (PCA) images with and without 12 μm IR data were compared subjectively for six weak to moderate eruptions using pattern recognition techniques, and objectively by determining a false detection rate parameter. GOES Sounder data were also evaluated in a few instances to assess any potential contributions from the new 13.3 μm Imager band. Results indicated that, during periods of daylight, there was little apparent difference in the quality of IR detection without the 12 μm IR, likely due to a maximum in solar reflectance of silicate ash in a shortwave IR (SWIR) band centered near 3.9 μm. At night when SWIR reflectance diminished, the ash detection capability appeared to be significantly worse, evidenced by increased ambiguity between volcanic ash and meteorological clouds or surface features. The possible effects of this degradation on aviation operations are discussed. The new 13.3 μm IR band on GOES has the capability to help distinguish ash from cirrus clouds, but not from low level clouds consisting of water droplets. Multi-spectral data from higher resolution polar orbiting satellites may also be used to supplement analyses from lower resolution GOES for long-lived ash cloud events. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments appear to be the best options in accomplishing this, with additional satellite missions becoming available later in the decade. In summary, it will still be possible to observe and track significant volcanic ash clouds in the GOES-M through Q era (2003–2012) without the benefit of 12 μm IR data, but with some degradation that will be most significant at night.