Impact on Potable Water Consumption Due to Massive Migrations: The Case of Bogotá, Colombia

Abstract

One of the most important aspects for the regulation of a water distribution system in a city is the accurate projection of the population to be supplied. Accordingly, it is necessary to know the social, cultural, and economic characteristics of the inhabitants, as well as the industrial, commercial, tourist and migratory dynamics to understand a city’s future development. Generally, population growth is continuous and usually follows a trend that makes it possible to extrapolate the future population, thus predicting the demand for drinking water based on per capita supply. However, forced migrations challenge this assumption. The present work aims to collect and analyze information related to Venezuelan migration, in the southern zone of Bogotá, Colombia. First of all, in this project, the demographic characteristics of the migrant population are defined, and the different sources of information collected during the study are used to estimate the total number of migrants in Bogotá. Then, new methodologies for tracking people using social media data connections, geolocation from active connections, and emerging platforms are shown. This is followed by an explanation of two approaches used to estimate the number of migrants from 2014 to 2020 in the boroughs of: Kennedy, Bosa, Tunjuelito, Usme, Ciudad Bolivar and the municipality of Soacha. Finally, using mathematical and statistical approximations, the study shows that the increases in water consumption in the city coincides with the flow rates needed to supply the migrant population. The results indicate that during the first half of 2021 the flow demanded by the migrant population in the studied localities was around 8 Mgal/d (350 L/s), which is 35.1% of the total flow demanded by the entire migrant population in Bogotá. The migrant water consumption was between 4.8% and 6.1% of the total demand for the city.