Abstract
Emission of pollutants from shipping contributes to ambient air pollution. Our aim was to estimate exposure to particulate air pollution (PM2.5) and health effects from shipping in countries around the Baltic Sea, as well as effects of the sulfur regulations for fuels enforced in 2015 by the Baltic Sulfur Emission Control Area (SECA). Yearly PM2.5 emissions, from ship activity data and emission inventories in 2014 and 2016, were estimated. Concentrations and population exposure (0.1° × 0.1°) of PM2.5 were estimated from a chemical transport mode, meteorology, and population density. Excess mortality and morbidity were estimated using established exposure-response (ER) functions. Estimated mean PM2.5 per inhabitant from Baltic shipping was 0.22 µg/m3 in 2014 in ten countries, highest in Denmark (0.57 µg/m3). For the ER function with the steepest slope, the number of estimated extra premature deaths was 3413 in total, highest in Germany and lowest in Norway. It decreased by about 35% in 2016 (after SECA), a reduction of >1000 cases. In addition, 1500 non-fatal cases of ischemic heart disease and 1500 non-fatal cases of stroke in 2014 caused by Baltic shipping emissions were reduced by the same extent in 2016. In conclusion, PM2.5 emissions from Baltic shipping, and resulting health impacts decreased substantially after the SECA regulations in 2015.
Highlights
International shipping is one of the sources of air pollution
The contribution of Baltic shipping to population exposure depends on the relationship between population density and air pollution levels
The mean exposure was highest in Denmark, followed by Sweden, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, and Lithuania, while the highest total population exposure was highest in Germany and Poland, due to their large populations (Table 1, Figure 2)
Summary
International shipping is one of the sources of air pollution. Nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter (PM) are emitted from ship smokestacks, and these emissions have global effects on health and the environment. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has proposed a new global standard to limit sulfur (S) in fuel oil from 2020 from the current limit of 3.5% to 0.5% sulfur. Both the North Sea and the Baltic Sea are defined by IMO (International Maritime Organization) as SECAs (Sulfur Emission Control Areas). SECAs are sea areas in which stricter controls were established to minimize airborne emissions from ships as defined by Annex VI of the 1997 MARPOL Protocol [1].
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