Impact of working from home on European office rents and vacancy rates

Abstract

The massive shift to working from home during the Covid-19 pandemic triggered discussions about its potential impact on the future demand for office space and the risk it poses to the performance of office markets. Against this background, the goal of this paper is to investigate the link between working from home and the evolution of key indicators of office occupier markets across Europe over the past three decades. Based on the data from Eurostat and CBRE, the paper uses panel regression to investigate the temporal as well as cross-sectional relationships between the share of the workforce working from home and office rents and vacancy rates in major cities. The results are interesting in several ways. Firstly, changes in the share of employees working from home did not appear to have any significant impact on the evolution of rents or vacancy rates over time. However, occasional homeworking was significant in explaining cross-sectional differences in office market indicators. Moreover, contrary to the initial expectations, higher share of employees occasionally working from home appeared to be associated with stronger performance of the respective office market. As explanation, the paper proposes a hypothesis that this was due to working from home being only one aspect of broader changes in the office work environment and related socio-economic trends that had a net beneficial effect on office occupier markets. Although the results refer to historical developments and may not be fully applicable to the current context of the pandemic, they highlight the need to consider working from home in a broader perspective of office occupier trends and ways of working.