Abstract
Due to its intermittent behavior wind speed supposes a WTG generating model of more than two states. Uncertainty in wind power implies a non-constant power output; hence, there are a risk of loss of capacity and loads. This paper proposes a multistate model of wind generating unit, to include the effect of wind variability besides conventional generators in HL1 reliability evaluation. Through non-sequential Monte Carlo simulations it is shown that system performance decreases as a result of wind power inclusion, and reliability indices validate it. Markov process is used to design the multistate model of wind generating unit. Historical data wind velocity for sixteen past years is gathered and used for modeling, and as case study a demand data in north of Colombia is selected.
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