Abstract
Abstract. Exponential growth of oil and gas facilities in wildlands from one side and an anticipated increase of global warming from the other have exposed such facilities to an ever-increasing risk of wildfires. Extensive oil sands operations in Canadian wildlands, especially in the province of Alberta, along with the recent massive wildfires in the province, require the development of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methodologies which are presently lacking in the context of wildfire-related technological accidents. The present study is an attempt to integrate Canadian online wildfire information systems with current QRA techniques in a dynamic risk assessment framework for wildfire-prone process plants. The developed framework can easily be customized to other process plants potentially exposed to wildfires worldwide, provided that the required wildfire information is available.
Highlights
Rising temperatures and climate change have increased the risk of weather-related hazards in Europe (European Joint Research Centre, 2017)
Duff Moisture Code (DMC) and Drought Code (DC) are combined together to determine the total amount of combustible materials in the form of a so-called Buildup Index (BUI)
The rate of spread (ROS) is the predicted speed (m min−1) of the fire head, which is calculated based on the fuel type, Initial Spread Index (ISI), BUI, crown base height and other parameters based on the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) subsystems of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System
Summary
Rising temperatures and climate change have increased the risk of weather-related hazards in Europe (European Joint Research Centre, 2017). Canadian Natural and Cenovus Energy, shut down their 80 000 and 135 000-barrel-aday operations, respectively, for safety precautions as the fires approached Foster Creek oil sands facility and Caribou South natural gas plant (Mining.Com, 2015). On the other hand, is used to dilute the crude bitumen thin enough to flow through pipelines Both the natural gas and diluent can pose high risks if exposed to fire, though the pipes carrying them are usually buried underground. Due to extensive oil sands operations in Canadian wildlands, in the present study, we have developed a dynamic framework, mainly based on available techniques and daily updated wildfire maps made available online by the government of Canada, to assess the impact of wildfires on oil sands facilities.
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