Impact of urbanization on net carbon sink efficiency in economically developed area: A case study of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, China

Abstract

Reducing carbon emissions and improving vegetation carbon sequestration (VCS) have long been recognized as the key ways to address the aim of carbon neutrality, requiring global effort and typical regional experiences. This paper develops an assessment framework for measuring the net carbon sink efficiency (NCSE) based on the concept of net-zero carbon sink to depict both carbon emission and VCS simultaneously. This paper primarily runs a spatial autocorrelation analysis to explore spatial characteristics of urbanization and NCSE of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRD) in China from 2000 to 2020, followed by employs a spatial econometric model to investigate the spatial spillover effect of urbanization on NCSE. The results show that NCSE in YRD exhibits clear spatial disparities, descending from the southern part dominated by mountainous hills to the flatter northern region. The spatial evolutionary trend of urbanization and NCSE has a significant positive correlation, manifested as H-H and L-L agglomeration, covering most counties in southeast coastal areas and northern plains, respectively. The NCSE can improve even during the continued urbanization in YRD. Specifically, for every 1% increase in urbanization, NCSE will increase by 0.164%, of which 0.118% in direct and 0.046% in indirect growth, respectively. In addition, GDP per capita, industrial structure, technological progress, road area and direct foreign investment are benefit for NCSE. In contrast, population density, environmental regulation, and built-up area tend to decline NCSE. These findings may help to formulate the urban sustainable development planning and differentiated carbon neutrality policies.