Impact of urban land development on carbon emission performance based on a multidimensional framework

Abstract

Massive carbon emissions resulting from global urbanization have been one of the main triggers of climate warming. Because of its scale and representativeness, China's urbanization has significantly affected the world's socioeconomic system. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of the urban land development (ULD) process and its impact on carbon emission performance (CEP), using cities in China as an example, is crucial for achieving global climate goals. Thus, using 245 cities in China as examples, a new explanatory framework was developed to understand the multidimensional characteristics of ULD and their impact on CEP. The average ULD increased from 0.266 to 0.299 and stabilized from 2000 to 2019, with the gap between cities continuously narrowing. Average CEP increased from 0.634 to 0.663 and then decreased to 0.556, presenting an increasing distribution pattern from northwest to southeast. The coupling level between ULD and CEP decreased from the east coast inland. More than half of the cities retained their coupling levels, and 3.67% achieved leapfrog development. The higher the initial CEP level, the weaker the positive effect of an increase in ULD level on the coupling score. In addition, the influences of the multidimensional characteristics of ULD on CEP showed significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity at the country scale. Thus, this study proposes that the effect of the ULD on CEP is phased, which is highly correlated with the evolution of the coupling level. These findings highlight the necessity for city managers to incorporate the differential impacts of the multidimensional characteristics of ULD on CEP in the formulation of carbon emission reduction policies.