Abstract

Abstract This numerical study examines the impact of urban growth and release of aerosols, moisture, and heat on precipitation for Fairbanks, Alaska, a remote city at high latitude. The remote location allows atmospheric changes to be attributed to the city and permits examination of their regional-scale impact. The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with three nested, interacting domains was run over Alaska. An analysis of variance separates the variance in precipitation ascribable to one urban causal factor from variance ascribable to other urban factors. Statistical analysis using an unreplicated 24-factorial design detected significant precipitation modification by individual urban effects, plus interactions among effects. Release of aerosols, release of moisture, and concurrent urban growth and aerosol release statistically significantly affect downwind precipitation with 95% confidence. The significant response to urban aerosol release results from directly cau...

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