Impact of urban and peri-urban growth on arable land (1976–2029) in a medium sized city of Shire Indaselassie, North Western Tigray, Ethiopia

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Urban and peri-urban areas have been growing rapidly globally due to population increase and other factors. However, poor urban land use planning caused remarkable impacts on the loss of potentially arable land. This study aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of urban and peri-urban expansion and its impact on arable land in the Shire Indaselassie city, North Western Tigray. Multi-temporal and spectral Landsat images were used as an input and processed using TerrSet, ERDAS imagine 2015, and ArcGIS 10.8.1 softwares. The Cellular Automata-Markov Chain model was used to predict the future urban and peri-urban areas. Pearson correlation coefficient was applied to examine the association among the population, urban, peri-urban growth, and its impact on arable land in Stata/SE v14. The findings revealed that urban and peri-urban lands increased by 7.5 km2 (22.1%) and 1.0 km2 (2.9%), while arable land decreased by − 0.1 km2 (− 0.2%) from 1976 to 2019. It is also predicted to increase by 1.0 km2 (2.80%) and 0.9 km2 (2.70%) until 2029, while arable land is anticipated to shrink by − 1.0 km2 (− 3.0%). The relationship among population growth, urban, and peri-urban land shows positive (r = 0.942, p = 0.058; r = 0.985, p = 0.016). However, arable land has been negatively correlated with population growth, urban, and peri-urban lands (r = − 0.610, p = 0.392). The result of this research is indispensable for urban planners and decision makers to optimize urban and peri-urban expansion related information without jeopardizing the size of arable lands.