Abstract
BackgroundUniversity students have higher average number of contacts than the general population. Students returning to university campuses may exacerbate COVID-19 dynamics in the surrounding community.MethodsWe developed a dynamic transmission model of COVID-19 in a mid-sized city currently experiencing a low infection rate. We evaluated the impact of 20,000 university students arriving on September 1 in terms of cumulative COVID-19 infections, time to peak infections, and the timing and peak level of critical care occupancy. We also considered how these impacts might be mitigated through screening interventions targeted to students.ResultsIf arriving students reduce their contacts by 40% compared to pre-COVID levels, the total number of infections in the community increases by 115% (from 3,515 to 7,551), with 70% of the incremental infections occurring in the general population, and an incremental 19 COVID-19 deaths. Screening students every 5 days reduces the number of infections attributable to the student population by 42% and the total COVID-19 deaths by 8. One-time mass screening of students prevents fewer infections than 5-day screening, but is more efficient, requiring 196 tests needed to avert one infection instead of 237.InterpretationUniversity students are highly inter-connected with the surrounding off-campus community. Screening targeted at this population provides significant public health benefits to the community through averted infections, critical care admissions, and COVID-19 deaths.
Highlights
In response to the novel coronavirus pandemic, universities have had to make decisions about how to conduct their academic year
Though the severity of COVID-19 in the fall depends on the level of preventive behaviours in the general population, the arrival of students always worsens COVID-19 outcomes, even under conservative assumptions
This is because university students have nearly double the number of contacts as the general population due to higher levels of shared living situations, service sector employment, and social activity
Summary
Citation: Cipriano LE, Haddara WMR, Zaric GS, Enns EA (2021) Impact of university re-opening on total community COVID-19 burden. PLoS ONE 16(8): e0255782. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0255782 University students have higher average number of contacts than the general population. Students returning to university campuses may exacerbate COVID-19 dynamics in the surrounding community.
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