Impact of Ukraine War on NATO Development. NATO Vision 2030

Abstract

The aim of the article is to analyze potential scenarios for the outcome of the armed conflict in Ukraine and its political and military consequences for NATO, taking into account the political and military decisions associated with the NATO Summit in Madrid in 2022, the new NATO Strategic Concept (NSC) of 2022, and the NATO 2030 Agenda. The outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will unequivocally determine the political, institutional, and military capacity of the NATO Alliance. Furthermore, non-Western political and military integration platforms such as CSTO, BRICS, and SCO will enhance the level of political, economic, and military cooperation among their member states. Therefore, the strategic perspective of a possible decline in the political, economic, and military capabilities of the United States and NATO, and an increase in the political, economic, and military capabilities of BRICS and SCO, becomes plausible. Agenda 2030 presents strategic development proposals for NATO, including deeper political and military consultations among the Allies, strengthening deterrence and defense capabilities, upholding the rules-based international order, enhancing resilience, maintaining technological superiority, continuing the NATO Open Door Policy, increasing training and capacity-building efforts, addressing and adapting to climate change, investing in NATO's financial capabilities, and allocating resources to the defense budgets of member states within the Alliance. A political challenge that remains is the political coherence of the Alliance regarding NATO's Open Door Policy, including Ukraine's accession as a member state, as well as political, economic, and military cooperation between the Russian Federation and China.