Impact of turbine technology on wind energy potential and CO2 emission reduction under different wind resource conditions in China

Abstract

Comprehensive knowledge about wind energy potential is critical for decision-making to achieve carbon neutrality and shape future energy pathways. Wind turbine technology advances (e.g., higher hub-heights, larger rotor diameters and rated power) can better support wind energy harvesting and alter wind energy potential. This study established an integrated model to evaluate the impact of wind turbine technology advances on onshore wind energy potentials under different wind resource conditions by using China as a case study. We found that technological advances of wind turbine can significantly impact wind energy potential. Compared with land-based 1.5-MW turbines, the onshore wind energy potential using newer generation turbines (land-based 2.5-MW turbines) would increase by 43% to 14.8 PWh (i.e., 2.0 times the electricity consumption of China in 2020). Importantly, advances in wind turbine technology can significantly increase capacity factor in poor wind resource regions, and thus enable economically viable generation in more areas. This can significantly increase wind energy potential in poor wind resource regions with large electrical load (e.g., Central, South and East China). Moreover, in contrast to the wind production of 0.46 PWh in 2020, China's wind energy potential is projected to hit 20.1 PWh by 2030 under the assumption of developed turbine technology in line with the trends of the past decade. The corresponding potential CO2 emission reduction would range from 12.6 Gt in 2020 to 21.7 Gt in 2030. These values are 1.3 and 2.2 times higher than China's CO2 emissions in 2020, respectively. To enhance wind energy contribution toward China's carbon neutrality goal, we recommend that the conversion of wind turbines to be accelerated, especially in poor wind resource regions with large electrical load.