Abstract
On 17 March 2014, only one day after the local referendum won by an overwhelming number of votes, the highest authorities of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea approved the decision of the independence of the peninsula including separate City of Sevastopol located within its territory. Subsequently, they requested Moscow to annex the new structure to the Russian Federation. On the same day, the Crimea Republic was recognized as sovereign and independent country by the authorities at Kremlin. Already on 21 March, Crimea together with Sevastopol became a new administrative entity of the largest country in the world. At the beginning of April 2014, two territories bordering with Russia located in the east of Ukraine declared independence. The rebellious areas that assumed the names of the Donetsk People's Republic and Lugansk People's Republic, rejected Kiev’s authority and, on 24 May 2014, signed the agreement on the creation of the Federal State of Novorossiya. The situation in the east of Ukraine began to resemble dominoes falling one after the other, slipping out of control of the state authorities. Military counteraction of the government in Kiev, aiming at prevents the disintegration of the country, encountered organized resistance of the separatist forces. International public opinion sided with Ukraine, which aspired to associate with the European Union. To reduce the support for the rebel forces provided by Russia, the latter has been hit with severe economic sanctions. The Russian Federation announced that it will respond by using similar measures against the countries of the West. In the meantime, the conflict in the east of Ukraine has gone into the phase of a permanent battle of two forces on the regional level. Nature and duration of this confrontation indicates that the armed struggle is entering a stage reminiscent of the war that has been ongoing for several years between the Palestinian National Authority and Israel. Just as in the Middle East, this situation may result in the following: the growing tension in this part of the globe and the danger of the conflict spreading into other areas. However, the Ukrainian problem in addition poses the threat of the deterioration of the economic situation in Russia and economic stagnation in the United Europe. In this situation, the following tasks might be of interest: analysis of factors that affect the intransigent attitude of the parties involved in the aforementioned events, possible outcomes of the conflict and forecast of the developments in the upcoming future.
Highlights
The current conflict in Ukraine results from the events of the recent past
At the beginning of April 2014, two territories bordering with Russia located in the east of Ukraine declared independence
Crisis in Ukraine and the outbreak of an armed conflict in its territory proved the fragility of conventions relating to the borders and to the European order
Summary
The current conflict in Ukraine results from the events of the recent past. Everything started in 1988 with a series of progressive political and economic changes in the Soviet Union, a country that disintegrated in the late 1991. Politicians of the Union closing "the door to Europe" to Russia and the United States attempting to marginalise the importance of Moscow in the world led the authorities in the Kremlin to seek, in dramatic circumstances, new allies and unprecedented solutions. These aspirations reflected in a proposal to create a Eurasian Union, a political and economic association of Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. To create a new monetary system, to increase the role of developing countries in global monetary institutions, to reform the United Nations In both of the above organisations, the Russian Federation wants to play an absolutely decisive, or even the leading role. China, Brazil, India and other most dynamically developing countries of the world
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