Impact of the trade war between the USA and China on the development of foreign trade in the Asian region

Abstract

The article presents and analyzes the dynamics of foreign trade indicators between the US and China for the period 2000–2021 (exports, imports, the share of China and ASEAN countries in US imports, the share of telecommunications equipment in US imports). It is established that in the USA and China, but especially in the USA, it is politics and not economic interests that dominate the development of bilateral relations. It is noted that ASEAN countries are very sensitive to changes in the trade of the Asia-Pacific region, and Southeast Asia has a long the history of trade «shocks». It is established that the trade war has led to significant losses for both economies, the consequences of the US-China bilateral trade dispute take several forms, trade tensions between the US and China persist, and its impact extends beyond the current period. It has been determined that Vietnam is best positioned to benefit from trade and investment. China's new industrial policy is expected to increase the substitution of domestic for imported inputs in the manufacturing supply chain, a move that will hurt ASEAN parts and component exporters such as Thailand and Malaysia. The China-American trade dispute has completely changed the ecology of international trade. Now the threat of tariffs has become a bargaining tool for business and broader goals. Even if China and the United States finally reach a trade deal, at least some of the additional tariff measures imposed by Washington on imports from the mainland are estimated to remain in place for a long time. In fact, even if the United States agrees to remove the tariffs now, and if there are problems in the future with the implementation of the agreements reached by the two sides, there is no guarantee that the same tactics will not be repeated. Since the Belt and Road Initiative is recognized and implemented in more and more countries, China may already to some extent overestimate the importance of economic and trade relations with the United States. In fact, China has not benefited as much as it seems from its economic and trade relations with the United States: the trade deficit has encouraged the emission of dollars, and the United States has gained a large amount of international seigniorage. As for the US foreign trade policy, it will continue to be aimed at supporting, promoting and protecting national producers in world markets.