Impact of the revised Unified Federal Traffic Law on crash casualties in Abu Dhabi Emirate: Interrupted time series analysis

Abstract

In recent years, different developing countries have shown growing interest in enacting road safety policies. However, research on their effectiveness in reducing crashes, injuries, and deaths is limited. This study evaluated the impact of traffic safety measures introduced in the revised Unified Federal Traffic Law in the Emirates of Abu Dhabi (AD) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on crash and casualty reductions. In particular, it examines the 2009 enactment of the black-point system. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to consider this topic in a desert or UAE context. Box–Tiao intervention analysis was used to examine monthly AD police data from January 2007 to December 2013. The analysis utilized a dynamic programming approach to test for structural changes in the AD casualty data and empirically confirm the presence and exact location of breakpoints (intervention time). The interrupted time-series analysis results indicated a significant drop in casualty rates post-intervention. Since the intervention, the AD has witnessed a slow downward trend in the crash casualty rate. These findings confirm the effectiveness of the implemented safety measures. They provide quality information to authorities regarding implementing and adopting life-saving interventions and road safety management.