Impact of the phase out of French nuclear reactors on the Italian power sector

Abstract

The present paper proposes an analysis concerning the impact of the reduction of the net electricity flow between France and Italy due to the phase out of French nuclear power plants. The analysis is performed by using a bid stack model which offers an approximate, but reliable representation of the Italian power system, as shown by extensive validation on historical data.The study takes into account sixteen scenarios given by the combination of different assumptions on the operating life of French nuclear reactors, fuel price, renewables development and demand level. Furthermore, a Business As Usual scenario is implemented as reference case.The results have shown that some scenarios determine tight conditions for the Italian power market and provoke an increase of the clean spark of 13 €/MWh with respect to the Business As Usual scenario. At the same time, an increase of the load factor of gas turbines from 0.5% to 4% is also detected. This situation requires substantial interventions in order to re-balance the system.On the contrary, scenarios which imply a more aggressive development of renewables and low increase of the demand, even in the case of a relevant phase out of nuclear capacity in France, do not determine tight conditions on the Italian power market, therefore it is not necessary to adopt particular measures.