Impact of the National Pension Fund on the Suitability of Elderly Pensions in Thailand*

Abstract

This study combines a traditional hypothetical worker approach with the techniques of stochastic forecasting to provide a better sense about the suitability of the pension system for formal sector private workers in Thailand. With regard to the proposed defined‐contribution pension, we find that workers with a 40‐year career can only expect a median replacement rate of approximately 13–14 percent of their final 5 years of income. Most of the pension benefits will still likely come from the unsustainable defined‐benefit pension system and further reforms will be needed to maintain suitable pensions.