Impact of the Green Deal on copper imports from Russia to the EU

Abstract

The article analyzes the prospects for copper imports from the Russian Federation to the EU in the context of the implementation of the plan for decarbonization of the EU economy by 2050. It is noted that green economy is more metal-intensive, but in the medium-run, the impact of the traditional drivers (population growth and rising welfare) on the global copper market will remain significant. Similar trends are shown in the EU copper market: in the current decade, the rapid relative growth of the green sectors of the economy and the demand for copper from them will not lead to fundamental changes in the dynamics and structure of the market. At the same time, the introduction of a cross-border carbon adjustment mechanism (CBAM) could disrupt the sustainability of the established business model in the European copper industry. Eight scenarios of the financial burden for copper imports from the Russian Federation to the EU after the introduction of CBAM are presented, showing that the new EU foreign trade instrument will not have a restrictive effect on copper imports from the Russian Federation. However, the increase in the supply of Russian copper to the growing EU market may be constrained by the geographic remoteness of new copper mining and refining facilities.