Impact of the Future Climate and Land Use Changes on the Hydrology and Water Resources in South East England, UK

Abstract

This study was carried out on the Pang catchment as a representative of the Thames River basin in the southeast of England, UK. The basin receives an average of 690 mm rainfall per year, making it one of the driest parts of the UK. Two-thirds of the basin is permeable chalk, middle Jurassic limestones, and river gravels. The Chalk is the main aquifer in southeast England. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of climate and land-use changes on water resources. The UKCP09 climate scenarios up to 2099 were applied. The results indicated that by the 2080s, under high emission scenarios, streamflow could decrease by 37%, 32%, and 70% during summer-autumn, winter and spring, respectively while the groundwater recharge could decrease by 70% and 46% during summer-autumn and winter-spring, respectively. Increasing broadleaf forest area would reduce streamflow and groundwater recharge by 15% and 19% during spring and summer, respectively. The Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI projected an increase in number, severity, and frequency of drought events up to the 2080s. The results of the Pang would help in future regional planning and management of the water resources in the southeast of England.