Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Academic Productivity in Oncology: A Journal-, Conference- and Author-level Analysis

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The objective of this study was to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on academic productivity in oncology as measured by conference abstracts, journal publications and individual authorship trends. Using a reference time frame of 2018 to 2022, we obtained data on the number of abstracts and articles submitted and published from a selection of oncology conferences and journals. To assess individual authorship patterns, we randomly selected 200 articles from 2018 (i.e., the 'index paper') and tracked publications over subsequent years for the first or last authors. Linear time-trend analyses and independent two-sample t-tests were used to assess changes in academic productivity over time, and univariable and multivariable linear regression were used to analyze individual factors predictive of publication rates, including gender, continent, specialty, MD vs. non-MD, and career status (early if within 5 years of training completion vs. late for all others). Data on submitted and published abstracts were available from 5 and 7 conferences, respectively. Both abstract categories demonstrated decreasing values over time but not statistically significant: conference submissions decreased from 15,308 in 2018 to 13,623 in 2022, (p = 0.11), and published abstracts decreased from 13,111 to 11,848, respectively (p = 0.16). Journal submissions were available from 6 journals and increased from 14,142 in 2018 to a peak of 20,241 in 2020 (2018 vs. 2020: p<0.001), and then declined to 15,650 in 2021. Journal publications from 10 journals showed no clear trends over time (p = 0.64). For the author-level analysis, of the 200 authors randomly selected, the majority were male (66.5%), from North America (55.5%), with an MD degree (80.9%, 131/162) and late career (86.6%, 129/149). Most common specialties included surgery (29%), radiation oncology (18.5%), epidemiology/public health (11%) and medical oncology (10%). For articles authored per year, there was no linear trend detected (p = 0.51), although mean number of publications per author peaked in 2020/2021 (papers/year for 2018-2022: 18.1, 18.1, 20.1, 21.2, 19.6). On univariable analysis, factors significantly associated with increasing publication rates were male gender, last author position on index paper, late career status, MDs, speciality of surgery or public/health epidemiology, and authors from Asia (all p<0.01). On multivariable analysis, factors remaining significantly predictive were late career status, MDs, specialty of surgeons or public health/epidemiologists, and authors from Asia (all p<0.01). Conference submissions and publications trended downward from 2018 to 2022. Journal submissions peaked overall in 2020, but did not translate to increases in journal publication rates. Disparities in publication trends were found, based on speciality and geographic regions, including a negative impact on early-career researchers.