Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic Surveillance of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil: An Ecological Study.

Abstract

The aim of the study was to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the notification of new VL cases in Brazil in 2020. It is an ecological and time-series study (2015-2020) with spatial analysis techniques, whose units of analysis were the 5570 Brazilian municipalities. The study population consisted of all new cases of VL recorded between 2015 and 2020. The P-score was calculated to estimate the percentage variation in new VL cases. Global and local univariate Moran's Indices and retrospective space-time scan statistics were used in spatial and space-time analyses, respectively. It was expected that there would be 3627 new cases of VL in Brazil in 2020, but 1932 cases were reported (-46.73%). All Brazilian regions presented a negative percentage variation in the registration of new VL cases, with the Southeast (-54.70%), North (-49.97%), and Northeast (-44.22%) standing out. There was spatial dependence of the disease nationwide in both periods, before and during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. There was a significant reduction in the incidence of new VL cases in Brazil during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings reinforce the need for better preparedness of the health system, especially in situations of new epidemics.