Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on youth delinquency: A discontinuous growth analysis

Abstract

IntroductionThis study aimed to investigate (a) the immediate and long-term changes in youth offending rates among 138 neighborhoods within a large metropolitan area in the context of COVID-19 and (b) the extent to which the socioeconomic composition of the neighborhoods accounted for variations of the changes.MethodsDiscontinuous growth models were applied to demonstrate the changes in offenses against a person, property offenses, and drug-related offenses one-year prior to, at (March 2020), and one-year following the pandemic.ResultsAt the onset of the pandemic, we registered an immediate reduction in offenses against a person and property offenses but not in drug-related offenses. There was a steeper declining trend for property offenses one-year following the pandemic as compared with that one-year prior to the pandemic. The neighborhood concentration of affluence and poverty was not related to the immediate reduction in any type of delinquency.DiscussionWe conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic not only had an abrupt but also an enduring impact on youth delinquency.