Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Measles Vaccination Coverage and Estimated Catch-Up Efforts for Serbia.

Abstract

Measles is highly infectious, requiring ≥95% vaccine coverage rate (VCR) to prevent outbreaks. This study aimed to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on routine measles-containing vaccine (MCV) VCRs in Serbia and estimate national and regional catch-up vaccination required to prevent outbreaks. A multiplier model was used to calculate annual MCV dose 1 (MCV1) and MCV dose 2 (MCV2) VCRs for children 1-6 and 6-12 years of age, respectively, for 2011-2022. Postpandemic (2023-2024) VCRs were modeled. The numbers of administered doses were compared to prepandemic and postpandemic, and monthly catch-up rates were calculated for 12-, 18- and 24-month campaigns. Between prepandemic and pandemic periods, national MCV1 VCR decreased from 88% to 81%, while MCV2 VCR decreased from 92% to 89%, corresponding to 20,856 missed MCV1 and 8760 missed MCV2 doses. Assuming national VCRs returned to prepandemic levels post-2022, 18% of children 1-6 years of age and 11% of children 6-12 years of age would have missed their MCV1 and MCV2 doses, respectively, by 2024. To catch up missed doses under this scenario, most regions would require monthly catch-up rates of 25%, 16% or 12% for MCV1 and 14%, 9% or 7% for MCV2, considering 12-, 18- or 24-month campaigns, respectively. The pandemic negatively impacted MCV VCRs in Serbia, leaving a sizeable proportion of children with missed doses. Significant catch-up efforts are required to recover VCRs to prepandemic levels and avoid future measles outbreaks, with increased monthly administration rates versus those in prepandemic periods.