Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Food Safety Inspection Outcomes in Toronto, Canada: A Bayesian Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Abstract

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in major disruptions to the food service industry and regulatory food inspections. The objective of this study was to conduct an interrupted time series analysis to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food safety inspection trends in Toronto, Canada. Inspection data for restaurants and take-out establishments were obtained from 2017 to 2022 and summarized as weekly counts of inspections, pass ratings, and total infractions. Bayesian segmented regression was conducted to evaluate the impact of the pandemic on weekly infraction and inspection pass rates. On average, a 0.31-point lower weekly infraction rate (95% credible interval [CI]: 0.23, 0.40) and a 2.0% higher probability of passing inspections (95% CI: 1.1%, 3.0%) were predicted in the pandemic period compared to prepandemic. Models predicted lower infraction rates and higher pass rates immediately following the pandemic, with additional variability compared to the prepandemic period, that were regressing back toward pre-pandemic levels in 2022. Seasonal effects were also identified, with infraction rates highest in April and pass rates lowest in August. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in an initial positive effect on food safety outcomes in restaurants and take-out food establishments in Toronto, but this effect appears to be temporary. This finding could be due to the beneficial impact of COVID-19 protection measures in these establishments or other factors such as less volume of customers. Additional research is needed to investigate causes of the identified differences as well as seasonal and long-term inspection trends postpandemic. Results can inform future food safety inspection planning, outreach, and pandemic preparedness.