Abstract
The outbreak of SARS-COV-2 disease 2019 (COVID-19) abruptly changed the patterns in electricity consumption, challenging the system operations of forecasting and balancing supply and demand. This is mainly due to the mitigation measures that include lockdown and work from home (WFH), which decreased the aggregated demand and remarkably altered its profile. Here, we characterise these changes with various quantitative markers and compare it with pre-lockdown business-as-usual data using Great Britain (GB) as a case study. The ripple effects on the generation portfolio, system frequency, forecasting accuracy and imbalance pricing are also analysed. An energy data extraction and pre-processing pipeline that can be used in a variety of similar studies is also presented. Analysis of the GB demand data during the March 2020 lockdown indicates that a shift to WFH will result in a net benefit for flexible stakeholders, such as consumers on variable tariffs. Furthermore, the analysis illustrates a need for faster and more frequent balancing actions, as a result of the increased share of renewable energy in the generation mix. This new equilibrium of energy demand and supply will require a redesign of the existing balancing mechanisms as well as the longer-term power system planning strategies.
Highlights
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) led to a lockdown on Wednesday, the 23rd of March 2020 in the United Kingdom (UK)
In order to effectively present the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on the Great Britain (GB) electricity system, four main categories are identified and analysed: (1) the changes in demand profile and volume, (2) generation portfolio; renewable and conventional generation shares, (3) forecasting and grid stability indicators and lastly (4) market prices, including dayahead wholesale market, system imbalance and variable prices for the domestic consumers
In addition to the demand reduction, the lockdown influenced theDemand consumption pattern which results in a changed load profile shape
Summary
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) led to a lockdown on Wednesday, the 23rd of March 2020 in the United Kingdom (UK). People were only allowed to go to work if working from home (WFH) was not possible. Failing to follow the new lockdown measures would lead to fines [1]. These measures lead to a disruptive change in the electricity demand and influenced the wider energy sector. Energy companies in the UK warned about potential blackouts [2]. The analysis of this high impact and low probability event is significant as any adverse effects on the electricity sector due to future pandemics or lockdowns could be forecast using the insights of this analysis
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