Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic and the containment measures imposed damaged the world economy severely. As a consequence of the stringent restrictions on business and social life, as well as the consequent economic downturn, tourism demand has seen a unique dramatic slump in the year 2020. This study concentrates on analysing and forecasting demand for international travel of the euro area in terms of tourism imports. Starting out from a description of the key macroeconomic factors, it then analyses their effects on tourism demand and develops a forecast model using contemporary approaches considering asymmetric income elasticities of tourism demand. Scenarios are elaborated to project demand for foreign travel of the euro area until 2022.
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