Impact of the April\u2013May SAM on Central Pacific Ocean sea temperature over the following three seasons

Abstract

Although the impact of the extratropical Pacific signal on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation has attracted increasing concern, the impact of Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM)-related signals from outside the southern Pacific Basin on the equatorial sea temperature has received less attention. This study explores the lead correlation between the April–May (AM) SAM and central tropical Pacific sea temperature variability over the following three seasons. For the positive AM SAM case, the related simultaneous warm SST anomalies in the southeastern Indian Ocean favor significant regulation of vertical circulation in the Indian Ocean with anomalous ascending motion in the tropics. This can further enhance convection over the Marine Continent, which induces a significant horizontal Kelvin response and regulates the vertical Walker circulation. These two processes both result in the anomalous easterlies east of 130° E in the equatorial Pacific during AM. These easterly anomalies favor oceanic upwelling and eastward propagation of the cold water into the central Pacific. The cold water in turn amplifies the development of the easterly wind and further maintains the cold water into the boreal winter. The results presented here not only provide a possible link between extratropical climate variability in the Indian Ocean and climate variation in the equatorial Pacific, but also shed new light on the short-term prediction of tropical central Pacific sea temperature.