Impact of temperatures on grassland transfer strategy: Evidence from the Qinghai-Tibet plateau in China

Abstract

The increasing severity and complexity climate change present significant challenges to agricultural and social activities. This study investigates the effects of extreme temperatures on grassland transfer strategies, utilizing micro-level survey datasets obtained from pastoral areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China, which are then matched with weather data. Employing the piecewise linear method and the temperature bins approach, the results reveal that extreme high temperature weather has a positive and significant effect on grassland transfer decisions. Specifically, each additional day of high-temperature weather throughout the year increases the overall probability of grassland transfer by 0.52%. Additionally, the analysis reveals a U-shaped relationship between temperature and grassland transfer-in decision, with the turning point occurring in the of 5–8 °C range. Furthermore, the findings indicate that grassland transfer decisions are predominantly influenced by moderating effects of factors such as the grassland quality and non-pastoral income. Moreover, herder households characterized by high income levels and younger demographics exhibit a notable capability in rapidly applying adaptive strategies to cope with temperature variations. Projections for future climate change scenarios indicate that extreme temperatures will significantly negatively impact grassland transfer-out, while positively influencing transfer-in.