Impact of temperature variation between adjacent days on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease during April and July in urban and rural Hefei, China.

Abstract

Previous studies have found that both high temperature and low temperature increase the risk of childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). However, little is known about whether temperature variation between neighboring days has any effects on childhood HFMD. A Poisson generalized linear regression model, combined with a distributed lag non-linear model, was applied to examine the relationship between temperature change and childhood HFMD in Hefei, China, from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2012. Temperature change was defined as the difference of current day's mean temperature and previous day's mean temperature. Late spring and early summer (April-July) were chosen as the main study period due to it having the highest childhood HFMD incidence. There was a statistical association between temperature change between neighboring days and childhood HFMD. The effects of temperature change on childhood HFMD increased below a temperature change of 0°C (temperature drop). The temperature change has the greatest adverse effect on childhood HFMD at 7days lag, with 4% (95% confidence interval 2-7%) increase per 3°C drop of temperature. Male children and urban children appeared to be more vulnerable to the effects of temperature change. Temperature change between adjacent days might be an alternative temperature indictor for exploring the temperature-HFMD relationship.