Impact of technological progress on the labor market

Abstract

The article discusses the issues of technological progress impact on labor market in developed countries and Kazakhstan, to what extent the expectations of mass unemployment are justified and what measures are taken by government employment agencies to mitigate transformational risks in the labor market. Scientific works devoted to quantitative assessment of automation and labor substitution have a very controversial methodology. The article presents the results of the analysis of different approaches and methodologies to assess the impact of automation on the labor market: the approach of measuring the routine of occupations based on the tasks included in the occupation, the application of economic models to determine the impact of automation on jobs and occupations, how the level of demand affects specific types of skills; the analysis of the results of extensive surveys is presented. Based on the methodology for assessing the risk of automation, it is determined to what extent certain occupations in Kazakhstan's employment structure are at risk of automation. It is concluded that the increase in unemployment due to automation, robotization and new digital solutions in the labor market of Kazakhstan is significantly lower than in developed countries. The impact of new technologies on the labor market remains relatively small, with the potential for both job losses and job gains. The authors conclude that most pessimistic forecasts are unfounded. However, emerging trends are becoming more and more concrete, requiring proactive measures to be taken in advance to prevent job losses. Digitalization is transforming existing occupations, requiring new skills to perform new tasks. Therefore, further innovation and economic growth depend on the level of human capital development.