Abstract
Heat pump performance is always improving. Lower minimum operating temperatures and better performance curves are increasing both the number of hours of useful service and effectiveness while in use. We estimate the rate of technological development for residential air source heat pumps and their consequent rate of adoption using a system dynamics model. From the perspective of the use stage in life cycle assessment, energy savings and greenhouse gas emissions reductions are estimated. A substantial reduction in overall energy consumption is predicted, while greenhouse gas emissions are only reduced where electricity is generated with little or no fossil fuels.
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