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Abstract
The current paper presents an application of an alternative probabilistic risk assessment methodology that incorporates technical, human, and organizational risks (T-H-O-Risk) using Bayesian network (BN) and system dynamics (SD) modelling. Seven case studies demonstrate the application of this holistic approach to the designs of high-rise residential buildings. An incremental risk approach allows for quantification of the impact of human and organizational errors (HOEs) on different fire safety systems. The active systems considered are sprinklers, building occupant warning systems, smoke detectors, and smoke control systems. The paper presents detailed results from T-H-O-Risk modelling for HOEs and risk variations over time utilizing the SD modelling to compare risk acceptance in the seven case studies located in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore, and UK. Results indicate that HOEs impact risks in active systems up to ~33%. Large variations are observed in the reliability of active systems due to HOEs over time. SD results indicate that a small behavioral change in ’risk perception’ of a building management team can lead to a very large risk to life variations over time through the self-reinforcing feedback loops. The quantification of difference in expected risk to life due to technical, human, and organizational risks for seven buildings for each of 16 trial designs is a novel aspect of this study. The research is an important contribution to the development of the next generation building codes and risk assessment methods.
Highlights
The recent Grenfell fire and Hackitt’s [1] report on the use of safety cases in fire safety engineering have generated renewed interest in probabilistic methods for fire risk assessment [2,3,4]
To address the literature gaps and follow the suggestions made by researchers in their studies, we employ a technical-human-organizational risk (T-H-O-Risk) methodology in this article to assess and compare human and organizational errors (HOEs) risks due to fires in high-rise residential buildings
This study breaks down the impact of HOEs on sprinklers, building occupant warning systems (BOWS), smoke detectors, and smoke control systems
Summary
The recent Grenfell fire and Hackitt’s [1] report on the use of safety cases in fire safety engineering have generated renewed interest in probabilistic methods for fire risk assessment [2,3,4]. The recent publication of BS7974-7:2019 [6] focuses on the ‘as low as reasonably practicable’ (ALARP) principle, an explicit framework for PRA, and cost-benefit analysis (CBA) in fire safety engineering [2,3]. The monetary valuation of human life is assessed by adopting a parameter called ‘societal willingness to pay’ (SWTP) for one statistical life, based on the life quality index (LQI) approach [7]. In this approach, the risk to death is reduced in exchange for the increased monetary amount that society is willing to pay. Until the SWTP is achieved there is an
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