Impact of Surveillance Imaging in Patients with HPV-Associated Oropharyngeal Carcinomas Treated with Definitive Radiation and Chemotherapy

Abstract

Post-treatment surveillance imaging for HPV-associated oropharyngeal carcinomas (OPCs) differs among physicians and institutions. Surveillance imaging can detect disease progression earlier, but can also contribute to anxiety and cost, without proven disease-free or survival benefit. We sought to determine the number of surveillance scans needed to detect a recurrence in patients with HPV-associated OPCs. We included consecutive patients with locally advanced HPV-associated OPC that received definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) with 70 Gy between March 1, 2017 to July 31, 2019. First post-treatment scans were defined as the first scans following the end of CRT. Surveillance scans were defined as body FDG PET/CTs, neck or chest CTs, and neck MRIs taken after the first post-treatment scans showed no evidence of disease. Any scans ordered to follow suspicious lesions on first post-treatment scans were not counted as surveillance scans. Recurrences were classified as detected by first post-treatment scans, surveillance scans, clinical exam, or incidental findings. The number of surveillance scans needed to detect 1 recurrence was determined by dividing the number of surveillance scans by the number of recurrences detected by surveillance scans. There were a total of 275 patients with median follow-up of 39.8 months (Interquartile Range (IQR), 34.9-47.8). Surveillance scans were first taken at a median of 12.1 months (IQR, 9.2-16) post-CRT. There were 27 (9.8%) patients who had a recurrence: 7 (2.5%) had locoregional recurrence (LR), 19 (6.9%) had distant metastasis (DM), and 1 (0.4%) had both LR and DM. LR was detected at a median of 5.8 months (IQR, 3.4-10.6) post-CRT and DM was detected at a median of 9.5 months (IQR, 4.8-14.3) post-CRT. Of all recurrences, 11/27 (40.7%) were first post-treatment scan detected, 10 (37.0%) were surveillance scan detected, 5 (18.5%) were clinical exam detected, and 1 (3.7%) was incidentally detected on lung cancer screening. Four (50%) LRs were first post-treatment detected (median time to detection, MTD: 4.2 months), 3 (37.5%) were clinical exam detected (MTD: 6.7 months), and 1 (12.5%) was surveillance detected (MTD: 9.0 months). For DM, 9 (45%) were surveillance detected (MTD: 12.7 months), 8 (40%) were first post-treatment detected (MTD: 4.1 months), 2 (10%) were clinical exam detected (MTD: 18.9 months), and 1 (5%) was incidentally detected (MTD: 12.1 months). A total of 702 surveillance scans were taken during the follow-up period. The number of surveillance scans needed to detect 1 LR/DM was 71 overall, 50 within 2 years and 254 beyond 2 years from CRT. First post treatment scans detect most recurrences for HPV-associated OPC. A high burden of surveillance scans is needed to detect one recurrence, especially beyond 2 years from CRT.