Impact of surface temperature changes on subgrade settlement of permafrost regions railway: a case study of the Qinghai-Tibet railway, China

Abstract

ABSTRACT Parts of sections in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway (QTR) have been deformed due to permafrost degradation, the global warming and human activities. Therefore, monitoring the subgrade settlement of the QTR in permafrost regions has been a major working in QTR maintenance. For this reason, this paper investigates the subsidence characteristics and derivative mechanisms of railway subgrades in the permafrost regions of the QTR. Additionally, it analyses the impact mechanisms of surface temperature changes on the subsidence of permafrost subgrades. Building on this investigation, a C-I-GWO-BP neural network prediction model was developed to forecast subgrade settlement in permafrost regions. The findings reveal a substantial correlation (R2 = 0.834) between the deformation of railway subgrades in permafrost regions and changes in surface temperature. Meanwhile，with the intensification of global warming and human activities, the subsidence of permafrost subgrade has shown an increasing trend year by year. The primary areas of deformation are predominantly concentrated in ice-rich permafrost regions, including rivers, lakes, and snowmelt runoff areas. Additionally, when compared to traditional BP neural network models, the C-I-GWO-BP neural network prediction model proposed in this article showcases diminished prediction errors and heightened accuracy in identifying optimal weights and thresholds. This model offers technical support for the efficient, accurate, and automated prediction of railway subgrade subsidence in permafrost regions.